CS2 Weapon Case
Revolver Case Skins
Released alongside the R8 Revolver, featuring the first R8 skins.
Drop Odds Breakdown
See how these odds play out in practice with our Case Simulator or calculate expected costs with the Case Odds Calculator.
| Rarity Tier | Chance | Items | Per-Item Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Special (Knife / Gloves) | 0.26% | 1 (knife/gloves) | — |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.320% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | 1.067% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 6 | 2.663% |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 6 | 13.320% |
Odds are Valve’s published container probabilities; each item within a tier is equally likely, so per-item odds are the tier chance divided by the number of items in that tier. StatTrak appears on roughly 10% of non-special drops. Souvenir and other container types can differ.
Expected Value Analysis
Against a $3.95 cost (case $2.75 + key $1.20) — you recover 49% on average
79.92% of openings return a low-value Mil-Spec — the distribution, not bad luck, drives the result
Average across 60 priced finishes in the gold pool, hit 0.26% of the time
Method: every skin in a tier drops with equal probability; tier value uses each skin's lowest live marketplace price (17 of 17 contents priced, 60 of 65 gold-pool finishes priced). StatTrak upgrades (~10% of non-gold drops) and wear-tier variation are not modelled, so the true return sits slightly above this estimate. If you want a specific skin, trade-ups or buying it directly are almost always cheaper than opening for it. Prices updated Jul 13, 2026.
Case Contents
All 17 weapon skins plus the 65-finish gold pool in this case, grouped by rarity:
Covert (2 items)
Classified (3 items)
Restricted (6 items)
Mil-Spec (6 items)
Special (65 items)
Case Opening Tips
- Case opening has negative expected value on average — try the Case Simulator risk-free first
- Invest in skins you love rather than opening for profit
- Consider float quality and condition when valuing items — use the Float Checker to analyse wear values
- StatTrak and Souvenir variants are rarer and more valuable
- Check live prices with the Price Tracker and Market Trends before buying
- Keep keys on secure accounts and enable Steam Guard
- Use the Skin Compare tool to compare similar skins before choosing
- Use the Trade-Up Calculator for better ROI than opening cases
- Check your current inventory value with the Inventory Lookup
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is the Revolver Case worth opening?
- On average, no. Opening the Revolver Case costs $3.95 (case plus key) and returns an expected $1.93 in skin value — you recover about 49% of what you spend, with the 0.26% knife/gloves chance (averaging $302.76 across the gold pool) already included. Opening is entertainment; if you want a specific skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper.
- What are the odds of getting a knife from the Revolver Case?
- The odds of pulling the rare special item (a knife) from the Revolver Case are 0.26% per opening — Valve's published rate for the gold "Rare Special Item" tier. Across 100 openings you have roughly a 22.9% chance of hitting at least one, so expect to open around 385 cases on average before a knife drops.
- What are the drop rates for the Revolver Case?
- Revolver Case uses Valve's standard weapon-case odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and the special knife/gloves tier 0.26%. Within each tier every skin is equally likely.
- What is the chance of a Covert from the Revolver Case?
- Any Covert (red) skin drops at 0.64% per opening. With 2 Covert skin(s) in this case, each specific Covert has about a 0.320% chance of being the one you unbox.