Win probabilities for CS2 pro matches, priced by one documented model — recency-weighted form, head-to-head history, map pool strength, and live series state. Updated in real time during live matches. See the match schedule, the team rankings, our model accuracy record, or the esports hub.
Loading match data…
0Matches Priced
0Tradable Edges
—Avg Confidence
—Tightest Line
How We Price Matches
Our pricing model follows professional trading methodology, not fan predictions. Each match is assessed across multiple dimensions:
Recency-Weighted Form (30%)The last ten results decay at 0.85 per match going back, then blend 60/40 with the longer-run win rate. The most recent match carries roughly twice the weight of the fifth-most-recent.
Head-to-Head (15%)Previous meetings between the two teams, decayed at 0.8 per match so a 2023 result barely registers against last month's. Thin samples are flagged on the card.
Map Pool (30%) & Map H2H (25%)Per-map win rates across each team's pool, requiring three plays per map to count, plus the map-by-map record between these two teams specifically.
Live State & ConfidenceOnce a match starts, the series and current map score take most of the weight. Tournament tier, sample size and BO1 variance adjust the confidence score — not the probability itself.
Full formula and version history on the methodology page. Strength-of-schedule and LAN/online splits are not yet part of the price.
Prices are model outputs, not financial advice. All betting involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.