CS2 Trade-Up Calculator
Build a 10-skin contract and see every possible outcome with live odds, expected value, and a 1,000-contract simulation. Pick inputs from the selector — or import your own Steam inventory.
Contract Inputs · 0/10
Outcome Simulation
RestrictedInventory Selector
Showing the 96 cheapest matches — narrow the search to see the rest.
Click a tile to fill the next slot · click a filled slot to remove it · prices are the lowest live listing
How Trade-Up Probability Works
The outcome of a trade-up is determined by the collections your 10 input skins belong to. Each input skin represents one "ticket" in a weighted lottery. If 6 of your skins come from the Fracture Collection and 4 from the Dreams & Nightmares Collection, the output has a 60% chance of being a Fracture skin and 40% chance of being a Dreams & Nightmares skin at the next rarity tier.
Within each collection, the specific output skin is randomly selected from all available skins at the target rarity. If the Fracture Collection has 2 Restricted skins, each has an equal 50% chance of being selected (given the Fracture Collection is chosen). This means your effective probability for any specific skin is: (collection tickets / 10) × (1 / skins at target rarity in that collection).
Float Value Manipulation
The output float comes from normalizing each input inside its own float range, averaging those ten values, then mapping the average onto the output skin's range. By carefully selecting input skins with very low floats, you can produce outputs in Factory New or Minimal Wear conditions that command premium prices.
Finding Profitable Trade-Ups
The most consistently profitable trade-ups share common patterns: cheap input skins from collections that contain high-value outputs at the next tier, combined with collections where the "miss" outcome still returns reasonable value.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How do CS2 trade-up contracts work?
- You submit 10 skins of the same rarity tier. The system returns one skin of the next-higher rarity from any of the collections represented in your 10 input skins. The output skin's float is derived from your inputs' floats — but each one is normalized inside its own float cap first, not averaged raw.
- How is the output float calculated?
- Each input is first normalized within its own float range, those ten values are averaged, and the average is mapped onto the output's range. Formula: normalized = (float − skinMin) ÷ (skinMax − skinMin), then Output Float = average(normalized) × (outMax − outMin) + outMin. Skipping the normalization step is a common mistake and can be badly wrong: ten inputs capped 0.10–0.70 sitting at float 0.15 give a normalized average of 0.083, not 0.15.
- What determines which skin I get from a trade-up?
- Each input skin "votes" for its collection's next-rarity skins. If you input 7 skins from Collection A and 3 from Collection B, there's a 70% chance the output comes from Collection A and 30% from Collection B.
- Can you profit from trade-up contracts?
- Yes, profitable trade-ups exist when the expected value of outputs exceeds the cost of inputs. The key is finding collections where the next-rarity tier contains high-value skins and manipulating collection ratios to increase odds of expensive outcomes.
- What is the best rarity for trade-ups?
- Mil-Spec to Restricted trade-ups have the lowest entry cost. Classified to Covert trade-ups offer the highest potential profit but carry more risk. Industrial to Mil-Spec trade-ups are often overlooked but can be consistently profitable.