CS2 Weapon Case
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Skins
Third CS:GO weapon case featuring CZ75-Auto Victoria.
Drop Odds Breakdown
See how these odds play out in practice with our Case Simulator or calculate expected costs with the Case Odds Calculator.
| Rarity Tier | Chance | Items | Per-Item Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Special (Knife / Gloves) | 0.26% | 1 (knife/gloves) | — |
| Covert | 0.64% | 1 | 0.640% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 2 | 1.600% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 4 | 3.995% |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 5 | 15.984% |
Odds are Valve’s published container probabilities; each item within a tier is equally likely, so per-item odds are the tier chance divided by the number of items in that tier. StatTrak appears on roughly 10% of non-special drops. Souvenir and other container types can differ.
Expected Value Analysis
Against a $13.09 cost (case $12.34 + key $0.75) — you recover 44% on average
79.92% of openings return a low-value Mil-Spec — the distribution, not bad luck, drives the result
Average across 60 priced finishes in the gold pool, hit 0.26% of the time
Method: every skin in a tier drops with equal probability; tier value uses each skin's lowest live marketplace price (12 of 12 contents priced, 60 of 65 gold-pool finishes priced). StatTrak upgrades (~10% of non-gold drops) and wear-tier variation are not modelled, so the true return sits slightly above this estimate. If you want a specific skin, trade-ups or buying it directly are almost always cheaper than opening for it. Prices updated Jul 13, 2026.
Case Contents
All 12 weapon skins plus the 65-finish gold pool in this case, grouped by rarity:
Covert (1 items)
Classified (2 items)
Restricted (4 items)
Mil-Spec (5 items)
Special (65 items)
Case Opening Tips
- Case opening has negative expected value on average — try the Case Simulator risk-free first
- Invest in skins you love rather than opening for profit
- Consider float quality and condition when valuing items — use the Float Checker to analyse wear values
- StatTrak and Souvenir variants are rarer and more valuable
- Check live prices with the Price Tracker and Market Trends before buying
- Keep keys on secure accounts and enable Steam Guard
- Use the Skin Compare tool to compare similar skins before choosing
- Use the Trade-Up Calculator for better ROI than opening cases
- Check your current inventory value with the Inventory Lookup
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 worth opening?
- On average, no. Opening the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 costs $13.09 (case plus key) and returns an expected $5.79 in skin value — you recover about 44% of what you spend, with the 0.26% knife/gloves chance (averaging $302.76 across the gold pool) already included. Opening is entertainment; if you want a specific skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper.
- What are the odds of getting a knife from the CS:GO Weapon Case 3?
- The odds of pulling the rare special item (a knife) from the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 are 0.26% per opening — Valve's published rate for the gold "Rare Special Item" tier. Across 100 openings you have roughly a 22.9% chance of hitting at least one, so expect to open around 385 cases on average before a knife drops.
- What are the drop rates for the CS:GO Weapon Case 3?
- CS:GO Weapon Case 3 uses Valve's standard weapon-case odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and the special knife/gloves tier 0.26%. Within each tier every skin is equally likely.
- What is the chance of a Covert from the CS:GO Weapon Case 3?
- Any Covert (red) skin drops at 0.64% per opening. With 1 Covert skin(s) in this case, each specific Covert has about a 0.640% chance of being the one you unbox.