What are the odds of getting a knife from the Shattered Web Case?

The odds of pulling the rare special item (a knife) from the Shattered Web Case are 0.26% per opening — Valve's published rate for the gold "Rare Special Item" tier. Across 100 openings you have roughly a 22.9% chance of hitting at least one, so expect to open around 385 cases on average before a knife drops.

What are the drop rates for the Shattered Web Case?

Shattered Web Case uses Valve's standard weapon-case odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and the special knife/gloves tier 0.26%. Within each tier every skin is equally likely.

What is the chance of a Covert from the Shattered Web Case?

Any Covert (red) skin drops at 0.64% per opening. With 2 Covert skin(s) in this case, each specific Covert has about a 0.320% chance of being the one you unbox.

Is opening the Shattered Web Case worth it?

On expected value, no. A key costs $1.70 and around 79.92% of openings return a low-value Mil-Spec skin, so the average opening loses money. High-value Covert and knife pulls are rare (0.64% and 0.26%). Most players open cases for skins they want rather than profit.

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$1.7Key Price

2019Year Released

November 2019Release Date

WeaponCase Type

Shattered Web Case

Name: Shattered Web Case
Brand: Valve
Price: 1.70 USD
Availability: InStock

Released with Operation Shattered Web featuring AWP Containment Breach and MAC-10 Stalker.

Release Date

November 2019

Year

2019

Key Price

$1.7

Type

🎒 Weapon Case

Drop Odds Breakdown

See how these odds play out in practice with our Case Simulator or calculate expected costs with the Case Odds Calculator.

Mil-Spec79.92%

Restricted15.98%

Classified3.20%

Covert0.64%

Special0.26%

Rarity Tier	Chance	Items	Per-Item Odds
Special (Knife / Gloves)	0.26%	1 (knife/gloves)	—
Covert	0.64%	2	0.320%
Classified	3.20%	3	1.067%
Restricted	15.98%	5	3.196%
Mil-Spec	79.92%	7	11.417%

⭐ Special Item (Knife / Gloves)0.26%The gold “Rare Special Item” drop — Shattered Web Knives. About a 22.9% chance of at least one across 100 openings (~1 in 385).

Odds are Valve’s published container probabilities; each item within a tier is equally likely, so per-item odds are the tier chance divided by the number of items in that tier. StatTrak appears on roughly 10% of non-special drops. Souvenir and other container types can differ.

ROI Analysis

Average Loss per Case

$-2.13

79.92% of openings return a low-value Mil-Spec — opening a case loses money on average

Covert / Knife Odds

0.64% / 0.26%

Chance of a Covert (red) or the rare special (knife/gloves) per opening

Recommendation

Trade Up

Use trade-up calculator for better ROI

Case Contents

All 17 possible weapon skins in this case, grouped by rarity:

Case Opening Tips

Case opening has negative expected value on average — try the Case Simulator risk-free first
Invest in skins you love rather than opening for profit
Consider float quality and condition when valuing items — use the Float Checker to analyse wear values
StatTrak and Souvenir variants are rarer and more valuable
Check live prices with the Price Tracker and Market Trends before buying
Keep keys on secure accounts and enable Steam Guard
Use the Skin Compare tool to compare similar skins before choosing
Use the Trade-Up Calculator for better ROI than opening cases
Check your current inventory value with the Inventory Lookup