CS2 Weapon Case
Shattered Web Case Skins
Released with Operation Shattered Web featuring AWP Containment Breach and MAC-10 Stalker.
✓ All 17weapon skins verified against CS2’s own item definitions (items_game.txt, read 2026-08-04). Knife and glove pools are listed separately and outside this check.
Shattered Web Case
Released with Operation Shattered Web featuring AWP Containment Breach and MAC-10 Stalker.
Drop Odds Breakdown
See how these odds play out in practice with our Case Simulator or calculate expected costs with the Case Odds Calculator.
| Rarity Tier | Chance | Items | Per-Item Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Special (Knife / Gloves) | 0.26% | 1 (knife/gloves) | — |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.320% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | 1.067% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 5 | 3.196% |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 7 | 11.417% |
Odds are Valve’s published container probabilities; each item within a tier is equally likely, so per-item odds are the tier chance divided by the number of items in that tier. StatTrak appears on roughly 10% of non-special drops. Souvenir and other container types can differ.
Expected Value Analysis
Recovery rank: #33 of 42 cases — see the full ranking, or open this case free in the simulator.
Against a $6.78 cost (case $4.29 + key $2.49) — you recover 27%, though that figure rests on an assumption about this case’s unpriced knives — on the range of assumptions our data allows it sits between 27% and 29%
79.92% of openings return a low-value Mil-Spec — the distribution, not bad luck, drives the result
Average across the 48 of 52 finishes in this case’s gold pool we hold a price for, hit 0.26% of the time
Method: within a rarity tier every skin drops with equal probability, and within the gold tier every knife or glove finish the case can actually drop does; each outcome is valued at its cheapest listed wear across markets, with StatTrak folded into non-gold drops at the published ~10%. Because every outcome is taken at its cheapest wear and those are buyer prices rather than what a seller banks after market fees, the figure is rough in both directions at once. Prices updated Aug 27, 2026. The same numbers, computed the same way but published only where every outcome carries a real price, are on our case RTP breakdown. If you want a specific skin, trade-ups or buying it directly are almost always cheaper than opening for it.
What this figure assumes. 4 of the 52 knife/glove finishes this case can drop — ★ Nomad Knife, ★ Paracord Knife, ★ Skeleton Knife and ★ Survival Knife — are plain, un-finished knives we hold no price for. They are assumed to be worth $107.78, the average of the 48 finishes we can price. That assumption is not a floor: if those knives are worth less the real recovery is nearer 27%, and if they are worth as much as this pool's dearest finish it is nearer 29%.
Case Contents
All 17 weapon skins plus the 52-finish gold pool in this case, grouped by rarity:
Covert (2 items)
Classified (3 items)
Restricted (5 items)
Mil-Spec (7 items)
Special (52 items)
Case Opening Tips
- Case opening has negative expected value on average — try the Case Simulator risk-free first
- Invest in skins you love rather than opening for profit
- Consider float quality and condition when valuing items — use the Float Checker to analyse wear values
- StatTrak and Souvenir variants are rarer and more valuable
- Check live prices with the Price Tracker and Market Trends before buying
- Keep keys on secure accounts and enable Steam Guard
- Use the Skin Compare tool to compare similar skins before choosing
- Use the Trade-Up Calculator for better ROI than opening cases
- Check your current inventory value with the Inventory Lookup
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is the Shattered Web Case worth opening?
- On average, no. Opening the Shattered Web Case costs $6.78 (case plus key) and returns an expected $1.86 in skin value — you recover about 27% of what you spend, with the 0.26% knife/gloves chance (averaging $107.78 across the priced gold pool) already included. That percentage is not exact: 4 of this case's 52 knife/glove finishes are plain, un-finished knives we hold no price for, and assuming a different value for them moves the answer to between 27% and 29%. Opening is entertainment; if you want a specific skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper.
- What are the odds of getting a knife from the Shattered Web Case?
- The odds of pulling the rare special item (a knife) from the Shattered Web Case are 0.26% per opening — Valve's published rate for the gold "Rare Special Item" tier. Across 100 openings you have roughly a 22.9% chance of hitting at least one, so expect to open around 385 cases on average before a knife drops.
- What are the drop rates for the Shattered Web Case?
- Shattered Web Case uses Valve's standard weapon-case odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and the special knife/gloves tier 0.26%. Within each tier every skin is equally likely.
- What is the chance of a Covert from the Shattered Web Case?
- Any Covert (red) skin drops at 0.64% per opening. With 2 Covert skin(s) in this case, each specific Covert has about a 0.320% chance of being the one you unbox.
Related
Most valuable contents
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