Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?

On average, no. Opening the Operation Wildfire Case costs $5.47 (case plus key) and returns an expected $1.71 in skin value — you recover about 31% of what you spend, with the 0.26% knife/gloves chance (averaging $82.35 across the priced gold pool) already included. That percentage is not exact: 1 of this case's 13 knife/glove finishes is a plain, un-finished knife we hold no price for, and assuming a different value for it moves the answer to between 31% and 32%. Opening is entertainment; if you want a specific skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper.

What are the odds of getting a knife from the Operation Wildfire Case?

The odds of pulling the rare special item (a knife) from the Operation Wildfire Case are 0.26% per opening — Valve's published rate for the gold "Rare Special Item" tier. Across 100 openings you have roughly a 22.9% chance of hitting at least one, so expect to open around 385 cases on average before a knife drops.

What are the drop rates for the Operation Wildfire Case?

Operation Wildfire Case uses Valve's standard weapon-case odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and the special knife/gloves tier 0.26%. Within each tier every skin is equally likely.

What is the chance of a Covert from the Operation Wildfire Case?

Any Covert (red) skin drops at 0.64% per opening. With 2 Covert skin(s) in this case, each specific Covert has about a 0.320% chance of being the one you unbox.

Operation Wildfire Case — Skins, Drop Odds & ROI Analysis

Name: Operation Wildfire Case
Brand: Valve
Price: 2.49 USD
Availability: InStock

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$2.49Key Price

2016Year Released

February 2016Release Date

WeaponCase Type

✓ All 16weapon skins verified against CS2’s own item definitions (items_game.txt, read 2026-08-04). Knife and glove pools are listed separately and outside this check.

Operation Wildfire Case

Released with Operation Wildfire featuring AK-47 Fuel Injector and M4A4 The Battlestar.

Release Date

February 2016

Year

2016

Key Price

$2.49

Type

🎒 Weapon Case

Drop Odds Breakdown

See how these odds play out in practice with our Case Simulator or calculate expected costs with the Case Odds Calculator.

Mil-Spec79.92%

Restricted15.98%

Classified3.20%

Covert0.64%

Special0.26%

Rarity Tier	Chance	Items	Per-Item Odds
Special (Knife / Gloves)	0.26%	1 (knife/gloves)	—
Covert	0.64%	2	0.320%
Classified	3.20%	3	1.067%
Restricted	15.98%	5	3.196%
Mil-Spec	79.92%	6	13.320%

⭐ Special Item (Knife / Gloves)0.26%The gold “Rare Special Item” drop — Bowie Knife. About a 22.9% chance of at least one across 100 openings (~1 in 385).

Odds are Valve’s published container probabilities; each item within a tier is equally likely, so per-item odds are the tier chance divided by the number of items in that tier. StatTrak appears on roughly 10% of non-special drops. Souvenir and other container types can differ.

Expected Value Analysis

Recovery rank: #22 of 42 cases — see the full ranking, or open this case free in the simulator.

Expected Return per Opening

$1.71

Against a $5.47 cost (case $2.98 + key $2.49) — you recover 31%, though that figure rests on an assumption about this case’s unpriced knives — on the range of assumptions our data allows it sits between 31% and 32%

Expected Loss per Opening

−$3.76

79.92% of openings return a low-value Mil-Spec — the distribution, not bad luck, drives the result

Rare Special (Knife/Gloves) Value

$82.35

Average across the 12 of 13 finishes in this case’s gold pool we hold a price for, hit 0.26% of the time

Method: within a rarity tier every skin drops with equal probability, and within the gold tier every knife or glove finish the case can actually drop does; each outcome is valued at its cheapest listed wear across markets, with StatTrak folded into non-gold drops at the published ~10%. Because every outcome is taken at its cheapest wear and those are buyer prices rather than what a seller banks after market fees, the figure is rough in both directions at once. Prices updated Aug 27, 2026. The same numbers, computed the same way but published only where every outcome carries a real price, are on our case RTP breakdown. If you want a specific skin, trade-ups or buying it directly are almost always cheaper than opening for it.

What this figure assumes. 1 of the 13 knife/glove finishes this case can drop — ★ Bowie Knife — are plain, un-finished knives we hold no price for. They are assumed to be worth $82.35, the average of the 12 finishes we can price. That assumption is not a floor: if those knives are worth less the real recovery is nearer 31%, and if they are worth as much as this pool's dearest finish it is nearer 32%.

Case Contents

All 16 weapon skins plus the 13-finish gold pool in this case, grouped by rarity:

Special (13 items)

Bowie Knife

Vanilla

Case Opening Tips

Case opening has negative expected value on average — try the Case Simulator risk-free first
Invest in skins you love rather than opening for profit
Consider float quality and condition when valuing items — use the Float Checker to analyse wear values
StatTrak and Souvenir variants are rarer and more valuable
Check live prices with the Price Tracker and Market Trends before buying
Keep keys on secure accounts and enable Steam Guard
Use the Skin Compare tool to compare similar skins before choosing
Use the Trade-Up Calculator for better ROI than opening cases
Check your current inventory value with the Inventory Lookup

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?: On average, no. Opening the Operation Wildfire Case costs $5.47 (case plus key) and returns an expected $1.71 in skin value — you recover about 31% of what you spend, with the 0.26% knife/gloves chance (averaging $82.35 across the priced gold pool) already included. That percentage is not exact: 1 of this case's 13 knife/glove finishes is a plain, un-finished knife we hold no price for, and assuming a different value for it moves the answer to between 31% and 32%. Opening is entertainment; if you want a specific skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper.
What are the odds of getting a knife from the Operation Wildfire Case?: The odds of pulling the rare special item (a knife) from the Operation Wildfire Case are 0.26% per opening — Valve's published rate for the gold "Rare Special Item" tier. Across 100 openings you have roughly a 22.9% chance of hitting at least one, so expect to open around 385 cases on average before a knife drops.
What are the drop rates for the Operation Wildfire Case?: Operation Wildfire Case uses Valve's standard weapon-case odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and the special knife/gloves tier 0.26%. Within each tier every skin is equally likely.
What is the chance of a Covert from the Operation Wildfire Case?: Any Covert (red) skin drops at 0.64% per opening. With 2 Covert skin(s) in this case, each specific Covert has about a 0.320% chance of being the one you unbox.