CS2 Trade-Up Calculator

Plan your trade-up contracts before committing your skins. Calculate expected outcomes, probability-weighted returns, and find profitable trade-up opportunities across CS2 collections.

Trade-Up Rarity Progression

Trade-up contracts always produce a skin one rarity tier above your inputs. Here are the possible progressions:

How Trade-Up Probability Works

The outcome of a trade-up is determined by the collections your 10 input skins belong to. Each input skin represents one "ticket" in a weighted lottery. If 6 of your skins come from the Fracture Collection and 4 from the Dreams & Nightmares Collection, the output has a 60% chance of being a Fracture skin and 40% chance of being a Dreams & Nightmares skin at the next rarity tier.

Within each collection, the specific output skin is randomly selected from all available skins at the target rarity. If the Fracture Collection has 2 Restricted skins, each has an equal 50% chance of being selected (given the Fracture Collection is chosen). This means your effective probability for any specific skin is: (collection tickets / 10) × (1 / skins at target rarity in that collection).

Float Value Manipulation

The output float is calculated using the average float of your 10 inputs, mapped to the output skin's float range. By carefully selecting input skins with very low floats, you can produce outputs in Factory New or Minimal Wear conditions that command premium prices. This is especially powerful for skins with narrow float ranges — a skin capped at 0.06 max float can only exist in Factory New, making low-float inputs essential.

Finding Profitable Trade-Ups

The most consistently profitable trade-ups share common patterns: cheap input skins from collections that contain high-value outputs at the next tier, combined with collections where the "miss" outcome still returns reasonable value. Look for collections where one skin at the target rarity is significantly more expensive than others — you can weight your inputs toward that collection while keeping costs low from the other collections.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do CS2 trade-up contracts work?

You submit 10 skins of the same rarity tier. The system returns one skin of the next-higher rarity from any of the collections represented in your 10 input skins. The output skin's float value is calculated from the average float of your inputs.

How is the output float calculated?

The output float is based on the average float of your 10 input skins, scaled to the output skin's float range. Formula: Output Float = (Average Input Float) × (Max Float − Min Float) + Min Float. This means lower-float inputs produce lower-float outputs.

What determines which skin I get from a trade-up?

Each input skin "votes" for its collection's next-rarity skins. If you input 7 skins from Collection A and 3 from Collection B, there's a 70% chance the output comes from Collection A and 30% from Collection B.

Can you profit from trade-up contracts?

Yes, profitable trade-ups exist when the expected value of outputs exceeds the cost of inputs. The key is finding collections where the next-rarity tier contains high-value skins and manipulating collection ratios to increase odds of expensive outcomes.

What is the best rarity for trade-ups?

Mil-Spec to Restricted trade-ups have the lowest entry cost. Classified to Covert trade-ups offer the highest potential profit but carry more risk. Industrial to Mil-Spec trade-ups are often overlooked but can be consistently profitable.