If you’re considering opening CS:GO cases, whether from Valve or third-party sites, this article will help you determine if it’s worth it. We’ll go into the real odds and other crucial aspects, including the best strategies to boost your chances of getting highly valuable drops.
We’ll also go into why opening cases has become a significant aspect of the off-server experience that Counter-Strike offers. Also, we’ll address the most commonly asked questions on this topic.
Continue reading to discover whether opening CS:GO cases is worthwhile or if purchasing the skins you desire directly is a better option.
Unveiling the Real Odds When Opening CS:GO Cases
To answer your question if is CSGO case opening worth it, it’s important to analyze the real odds of drops. Below, you will find all the information you need.
About the Contents of CS:GO Cases and Their Rarity
The majority of cases typically contain skins categorized into five levels of rarity, spanning from Blue to Gold. Prior to the Chinese government’s mandate for Valve to disclose the actual odds for each rarity level before launching CS:GO in China, these probabilities were unknown.
Fortunately, this information is now available:
| Rarity Level | Odds |
| Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% |
| Mythical / Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% |
| Legendary / Classified (Pink) | 3.20% |
| Ancient / Covert (Red) | 0.64% |
| Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold) | 0.26% |
For example, let’s suppose you buy the same case 1,000 times, based on this information, you’d get the following:
- 799 to 800 skins rated Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue)
- 159 to 160 skins rated Mythical / Restricted (Purple)
- 32 skins rated Legendary / Classified (Pink)
- 6 to 7 skins rated Ancient / Covert (Red)
- 2 to 3 skins rated Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold)
Of course, you might get lucky and win an Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold) right off the bat after opening 5 cases, or you might win one after opening 578 cases. These are just the probabilities, and they work similarly to the Return-to-Player (RTP) metric used by online slots and other online casino games.
Simply put, it’s easier to land a low-paying combination, such as Blue and Purple skins, and it’s much harder to land a high-paying combination such as a Gold skins, which is similar to getting the same symbol on all the reels of your favorite online slots game.
About the CS:GO Case Odds and Wear Quality
However, there’s still an important piece of information missing: the wear quality of skins. Unfortunately, Valve hasn’t revealed the actual odds for this. However, through our own analysis, we’ve managed to figure out the chances of getting a weapon with a particular wear, as explained in the table below:
| Wear | Probability |
| Factory New (0.00-0.07) | 3% |
| Minimal Wear (0.07-0.15) | 24% |
| Field-Tested (0.15-0.38) | 33% |
| Well-Worn (0.38-0.45) | 24% |
| Battle-Scarred (0.45-1.00) | 16% |
We have calculated it considering a wear range of 0 to 1. And as you can see, scoring a Factory New skin, which is far more valuable, when opening a CS:GO case is quite hard, even more so if we are talking about a Gold Factory New skin.
Use This Information to Decide Wisely
Now that you know what probabilities you have of scoring a highly valuable drop, such as a Minimal Wear or Factory New Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold), you can use this information to decide if you should spend your money opening cases, or use it to buy your favorite skins directly.
We are here to help you make the best decisions, and this is why you need to look at CS:GO case opening objectively, driven by a rational mindset rather than emotional. Therefore, if you feel like a case is too expensive to open, and it will take you hundreds of spins to land your preferred skin (in theory), you might be better off buying it directly, especially if you have a limited budget.
On the other hand, if you have a larger budget or bankroll, and you’re down to opening the same case multiple times until scoring your preferred drop, because you’re confident you will be lucky enough to accomplish this feat, then go ahead and focus on opening CS:GO cases.
If you see CS:GO case opening like gambling, and you plan to set aside a certain amount of money for it, while also using money management strategies, your goal would be to reach specific profit goals while keeping losses low. This way, you can make CS:GO case opening a consistent way to make money. In this situation, it’s best to focus on buying and opening CS2 cases.
All CS:GO Cases Offer the Same Odds
Now that we’ve revealed the actual odds of CS:GO case opening, it’s worth noting that these odds apply to all existing CS:GO cases. Therefore, theoretically, they should all offer the same outcomes. However, in practice, some CS:GO cases may offer a better Return on Investment (ROI) than others. In the next section, we’ll provide a table listing the most worthwhile cases to open in CS:GO based on their ROI.
What is the Most Worth Case to Open in CSGO? – About CS2 Case ROI
All CS:GO cases have the same odds in theory, but as shown in the following table, some of them offer a better ROI:
| Name | ROI | Case Price | Key Price | Return on $100 | Return on $500 | Return on $1000 |
| Kilowatt Case | 83.03% | $1.24 | $2.50 | $83.03 | $415.15 | $830.30 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 76.31% | $6.81 | $2.50 | $76.31 | $381.55 | $763.10 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 72.89% | $13.20 | $2.50 | $72.89 | $364.45 | $728.90 |
| Operation Wildfire Case | 68.26% | $2.43 | $2.50 | $68.26 | $341.30 | $682.60 |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | 65.22% | $10.58 | $2.50 | $65.22 | $326.10 | $652.20 |
| Operation Vanguard Case | 64.52% | $2.92 | $2.50 | $64.52 | $322.60 | $645.20 |
| Winter Offensive Case | 63.58% | $6.39 | $2.50 | $63.58 | $317.90 | $635.80 |
| Horizon Case | 62.28% | $0.95 | $2.50 | $62.28 | $311.40 | $622.80 |
| Prisma Case | 61.48% | $0.65 | $2.50 | $61.48 | $307.40 | $614.80 |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | 60.69% | $10.27 | $2.50 | $60.69 | $303.45 | $606.90 |
If you’re new to the CS:GO case opening scene, and you want to get started the right way, you can try your luck opening these cases, because after testing them for thousands of spins, they consistently offer the highest ROI nowadays.
If you’d like to get more information on case opening to see if it’s worth it for you, we invite you to read the next sections. We will go into topics such as third party case opening sites and free drops.
Valve vs. Third Party Case Opening Sites: Which One Is Worth It?
Another factor to take into account when analyzing if are case opening worth it is if you’re going to open cases in-game (Valve), or if you are going to open them at third party sites. Below, we will explain the main differences.
Opening Valve CS:GO Cases
If you have never ventured into the world of CS:GO gambling before, chances are you only know about Valve cases. The biggest problem with them is you have to buy expensive keys to open them, which will increase the cost of your investment while decreasing your chances of landing a good drop.
Because opening Counter-Strike cases works like playing online slots, the key is in remaining in the game for long enough until winning a pretty valuable skin that leaves you in the profit zone. Unfortunately, with the expensive price tag of keys, in addition to the price of cases, you will be just playing a race to the bottom.
Sure, you can get lucky and win after opening just a few cases, but in the vast majority of cases, you need to open lots of cases until you get an exotic, rare and expensive drop, and by sticking to Valve CS:GO cases, you’re just making it all much harder for you.
Another reason why we don’t recommend sticking to Valve cases is because you cannot get more than what Valve brings you. You will not find Valve cases that only contain knives, gloves, stickers, and if you’re hunting down on a specific type of skin, this is going to play against you.
This is why we don’t recommend buying the official Valve CS2 cases, because you’re going to decrease your odds of winning valuable skins and items, mainly because they are more expensive and limited on the types of skins they can offer you.
Opening Cases at Third Party Sites
Third party CS:GO case opening sites are the answers to the deficiencies of Valve CS:GO cases, because they don’t require you to buy expensive keys to open cases, and you can buy plenty of bespoke cases that can contain only the skins you’re looking for, be it knives, gloves, stickers, etc.
Purchasing cases from third-party sites is more cost-effective, allowing you to open a greater number of cases with the same amount of money. This increases your chances of obtaining highly valuable drops. For instance, if you intend to spend $500 on opening CS:GO cases, you’ll get more value for your money at a third-party site compared to purchasing Valve official cases.
Also, on third-party sites, you can find custom cases tailored to certain types of skins. This means you can focus on getting the exact skins you want. So, with your $500, not only do you get more bang for your buck due to cheaper cases, but you also have a better shot at getting the skins you really desire.
Another key advantage here is that third party sites offer way more bonuses and promotions than Valve. Sure, you can get a free case or gift by Valve every now and then, but it won’t compare to what independent case opening sites can offer you. From bonuses of free cases on signup to free daily CS:GO cases and skins, you can see why it’s better to buy and open cases at third party sites.
Some players hesitate to open cases on third-party sites due to concerns about fairness. They prefer sticking to Valve’s official CS:GO cases. However, you needn’t worry about fairness on third-party sites. They ensure 100% fairness using the Provably Fair system, powered by blockchain. This system guarantees random, verifiable, and fair results for all users.
Verdict: Which One is the Best Option?
Third party case opening sites are your best choice, because they’re way cheaper as you can open cases without buying the expensive keys from Valve. Furthermore, as you will have access to bespoke cases that can contain only specific skins for knives, gloves, stickers, AWPs, and the like, you can increase your chances of scoring a rare and exotic drop.
Therefore, if you want to make CS:GO case opening worth it, go ahead and join a reputable third party CS2 case opening site, as it’s going to offer you a higher potential ROI, a lower entry cost and higher chances of landing exotic drops.
Is It Worth Opening Free Drop CS:GO Cases?
Anything free is worth opening, because you are not spending any money while standing a chance at scoring a drop, bringing you practically infinite ROI.
Counter-Strike now rewards players with a weekly free drop, which is known as the Care Package. It contains the following:
- 1 free CS:GO skin
- 1 free CS:GO case
- Handful of free graffiti
From these three rewards, you can choose only two. Evidently, the best picks are the free skin and the free case.
The free skins and cases you will get are determined by Valve’s Active Drop Pool, and you need a Prime subscription, which is $14.99 per month, to claim the free weekly drops.
So, it makes sense to invest in the Prime subscription to be eligible for the free Counter-Strike drops. Because the value of the free skins can easily surpass the price of the subscription, hence they can help you to increase your overall profit from opening CS:GO cases.
Why Do People Invest into Opening CS:GO Cases?
Case opening is one of the features that make Counter-Strike stand out from the rest, giving players an off-the-server experience that’s hardly matched by any other esport or games. Here you have the list of reasons why people invest into opening CS:GO cases:
- It’s fun: Simply put, opening CS2 cases is fun, as it doesn’t require any skills, it’s all about luck and you can win big prizes, an outstanding combination that drives thousands of players to invest into opening cases
- It’s the same as gambling: Opening CS:GO cases is very similar to other types of gambling such as playing slots, be it offline or online. And this is why it draws thousands of players into opening cases, because it offers the same adrenaline rush as gambling
- You can get lucky and win big: Cases such as the Kilowatt Case cost less than $4.00, and you can get highly valuable drops such as a Kruki Knife | Blue Steel, which is worth over $600, and you find hundreds of similar examples because plenty of CS2 cases offer the same high ROI opportunities. This is why so many people invest into opening cases, because there’s always a chance of winning big
- You can use it as a system to win valuable skins consistently: A lot of people invest into opening cases because they have turned this activity into a system to win valuable skins consistently. By applying key bankroll management principles, you can protect your initial investment while increasing your chances of scoring expensive and exotic drops on a regular basis.
The Approach to Make CS GO Case Opening Worth It
Based on the odds, opening CS:GO cases might appear too risky and that you’re better off buying your favorite skins directly, but this is not accurate at all. Because it all depends on the approach you use, and below you’ll learn how to handle CS2 case opening like a pro to make it worth it.
Bankroll Management is Key
CS:GO case opening is similar to other forms of gambling such as playing online slots, instant games such as Crash or Mines, or classic board games ranging from blackjack to roulette. Therefore, you can use the same bankroll management principles to improve your chances of winning exotic and highly valuable CS2 skins and items.
Here you have the list of rules you need to follow to administer your bankroll like a professional:
- Build Your Bankroll: You should never spend more than what you can afford to lose. If you’re planning on using money for rent, college, utilities, or other essential needs to try your luck at opening CS2 cases, simply don’t.
For example, if you got an extra $500 you don’t mind losing, you can use it as your bankroll for CS:GO case opening. This will be the only money you’re going to use, so you can make your case opening experience safe, thrilling and fun - Decide What Skins You Want to Win: It’s key to know beforehand the skins you want to win, because just shooting in the dark with the hope of getting an expensive drop is a strategy doomed to fail. By knowing exactly the skins you want to buy, you’ll be able to pick the right cases, be it Valve official cases or at third party sites
- Distribute It Accordingly: Now that you know what skins you’d like to win, you can easily identify the cases you have to buy. However, we recommend you to be realistic about what you want to win and the size of your bankroll. Because the best rule you can follow here is only buying cases that are 1-2% the size of your bankroll
Following the example of the $500 bankroll, it means the cases you buy should cost between $5 to $10 to open. And if you can change your goals and aim at opening cheaper cases in the range of $2 to $3, which would represent less than 1% of your bankroll, even better. Because this will bring you more chances at scoring a good drop. - Set Profit Goals and Loss Limits: It’s important to know when to call it a day, be it that you’re winning or losing. We recommend you to set your profit goal to as soon as you land a good drop that leaves you in profit by 5-10%+, and to set your loss limit at 5-10% below your original bankroll.
By following these simple rules, you will make opening CS:GO cases worth it, as you will stand a higher chance at scoring highly valuable drops.
Only Open Cases at Third Party Case Opening Sites
Just like we mentioned earlier in this guide, it’s much better to spend your money opening cases at third party sites than in-game, because they are much cheaper as you don’t have to buy expensive keys. Therefore, you will reduce the cost of case opening massively, bringing you more shots at landing a highly valuable drop.
Furthermore, third party sites often offer custom cases, which might contain only specific skins such as knives or gloves, bringing you even higher chances at landing an excellent drop, which will make your investment worth it. And considering you can also claim bonuses of free cases, it’s evident why third party sites are the way to go.
Therefore, if you want to make CSGO case opening worth it, forget about Valve altogether, and focus on opening cases at reputable third-party case opening sites.
Take Advantage of Bonuses As Much As Possible
As we previously mentioned, third party sites offer plenty of bonuses, and hence, you need to take advantage of them as much as possible.
On our website, you can find recommendations about the best CS:GO case opening sites to join, which offer the following bonuses:
- Welcome bonuses of free CS:GO cases just on registration without a deposit requirement
- Welcome bonuses of free CS:GO cases on your first deposit
- Daily free CS:GO cases
- CS:GO cases reload bonuses on new deposits you make
- Giveaways of free CS:GO cases
Valve will never offer you such advantages, and hence, it makes sense to only buy and open cases at third party sites, because the free bonuses are going to increase your ROI, by bringing you plenty of free opportunities at dropping expensive and rare skins.
It’s also worth mentioning you can get free drops on CS2, depending on your gaming activity. Evidently, you need to take advantage of these as much as possible as well, because you’re getting free shots at getting a highly valuable skin, so everything will contribute towards increasing your ROI.
Always Cash Out Your Winnings or While You’re Ahead
When playing at online casinos, it’s a golden rule to always cash out your winnings or while you’re ahead, and the same principles apply to CS:GO case opening. This is why we insist on proper bankroll management, as it’s key for making CS:GO case opening profitable and worth it.
As a rule of thumb, whenever you land an exotic, rare or expensive drop, just call it a day and enjoy it. Be it you want to use it for the game, exchange it for credits at your preferred skins gambling site or sell it for real money at a skins trading site, just cash out your winnings and enjoy them.
F.A.Q
If you would like to learn more about CS:GO case opening and if it’s worth it, below you will find the answers to the most frequently asked questions about this subject.
Is it better to sell or open cases on CSGO?
It’s better to open cases on CSGO, as you stand a chance at getting a valuable skin. Especially if you got the case cheap or for free, you should stick to opening cases instead of selling them, especially if you’re running a proper bankroll management strategy.
Is opening CS:GO cases profitable?
Yes, opening CS:GO cases can be profitable if you manage your bankroll properly and remember about cashing out the winnings or while you’re ahead. This is why it’s important to set proper bankroll management rules, to increase your chances of winning highly valuable Counter-Strike skins.
What is the most profitable CSGO case?
At the moment, the most profitable CSGO case to open is the Kilowatt Case, because it offers a ROI of over 80%, bringing you a good margin for running your strategy and eventually get into profit zone and cash out while you’re ahead.
Is it better to buy weapon skins or open CS:GO cases?
If you know exactly what weapon skin you want, and your budget is limited, you should go ahead and buy it directly. On the other hand, if you have a larger budget, and you aren’t looking for a skin in specific, it makes more sense to invest your money into opening Counter-Strike cases.
Can I sell CSGO cases for money?
Yes, you can sell CSGO cases for money, be it on the Steam Community Marketplace or at third party CS:GO marketplaces and trading sites. You can list them for sale, and as soon as a buyer purchases it, you will receive the corresponding payment.
What is the rarest thing in CSGO?
The StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) is the rarest thing in CSGO, as it belongs to the Contraband category and it’s the only one of its kind in existence. Unfortunately, you cannot get it by opening cases, as it’s only obtainable via trading.
Can you open CS:GO cases on phone?
Yes, you can open CS:GO cases on phone at third party CS:GO case opening sites. All you need to do is to create your account, buy or claim free cases and you’ll be able to open them instantly on your phone, be it iOS or Android.
Is there a CSGO case simulator?
Yes, you can find a CSGO case simulator at CSDB bringing you the opportunity to test the waters for free and without risk before venturing into purchasing and opening real money CS:GO cases. You can also use this simulator to test a new strategy before using real money.
Can you open CSGO cases for free?
Yes, you can open CSGO cases for free by claiming drops or gifts from Valve, or by redeeming bonuses and promotions at third party case opening sites, bringing you the opportunity to win new skins without risk.