Every CS:GO player wants to play the game wielding a knife. However, knives are the rarest skins, and not everyone can afford one. Most people think opening a case for $2.5 and unboxing a knife would be the most efficient way to get their first knife skin, which is why almost a million cases are opened daily.
However, opening cases is not a sustainable way of making money. In this article, we’ll show you the official chances of pulling a knife in CS:GO, and use real examples to show you it’s not worth it.
How Do Counter-Strike Cases Work?
Let’s quickly understand how CS:GO weapon cases work before we reveal the odds of unboxing a knife.
A CS:GO case is essentially a loot box. Players can obtain cases by receiving them as drops or purchasing them from the Steam Marketplace. To open a case, players must use a CS:GO case key to unbox it. The contents inside the case are entirely random and have five different rarities. CS:GO knives have the highest rarity in the game, meaning the chances of pulling one are incredibly slim.
When a case is opened, the game uses a random seed to determine which skin you receive. The rarer the item, the lower the odds of obtaining it.
What CS:GO Cases Contain Knives?
Most Counter-Strike weapon cases have knives. However, other cases may contain gloves instead.
These cases DO NOT have knife skins inside them:
- Glove Case
- Operation Hydra Case
- Clutch Case
- Operation Broken Fang Case
Every case not mentioned above will drop knives, meaning the majority of CS:GO cases contain knives instead of gloves.
What Are The Odds Of Getting A Knife In CS:GO?
The game developers of Counter-Strike, Valve Corporation, have officially answered the question: “What are the chances of getting a knife in CS:GO?”
The Chinese government demanded Valve to reveal the probability numbers of CS:GO cases to the public. When this information was made transparent in China, it spread worldwide, and every CS:GO player now has access to this information.
They have released the CS:GO knife odds to the public, which can be seen in the table below:
| Skin Rarity | Official Odds To Unbox |
| Exceedingly Rare (Yellow, Knife) | 0.26% |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.2% |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% |
The verified numbers show that players only have a meager 0.26% chance of unboxing a knife in CS:GO. Statistically speaking, you are likely to unbox a knife every 385 cases, which shows how low the odds are of unboxing a CS:GO knife.
In Valve’s other title, Dota 2, players can receive escalating odds as a “pity system” after every treasure the player opens. However, this is not true in CS:GO, as these odds are fixed. Opening 400 cases does not mean you are guaranteed to unbox a knife! There is no possible way to increase your chances of unboxing a knife.
Numerous community members have opened thousands of cases and have yet to unbox a knife. Meanwhile, some new players have unboxed a knife within their first ten cases. Pulling a knife comes down to pure luck.
Is The CS:GO Knife Chance The Same For Every Case?
The odds of 0.26% remain the same for every weapon case. There is no singular case with slightly higher odds of unboxing, as the chances are universal. The only difference is the possible knife skins you will receive.
Some cases drop more valuable knife skins and contents than others. The odds remain the same, but the price of each case could be significantly higher.
Anomaly’s 24-Hour Case Opening Test
Anomaly is one of the most prominent Counter-Strike content creators, with over 3,000,000 subscribers on YouTube. Opening CS:GO cases are one of his hobbies, and he decided to perform a test to verify if the case opening odds were accurate.
As a result, he conducted a 24-hour live stream. The agenda was to open 4,000 cases and conclude whether the knife odds CS:GO developers claimed were credible.
Anomaly opened 4,058 cases, and here is a summary of what he unboxed:
| Skin Rarity | Quantity Unboxed | Odds To Unbox |
| Exceedingly Rare (Yellow, Knife) | 12 | 0.296% |
| Covert (Red) | 33 | 0.813% |
| Classified (Pink) | 115 | 2.834% |
| Restricted (Purple) | 634 | 15.62% |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 3,264 | 80.437% |
Anomaly was slightly luckier than Valve’s official CS:GO knife chance probabilities. He unboxed 12 knives, which brings the odds to 0.296%, 0.036% higher than the 0.26% confirmed by the game developers.
He also unboxed more Covert skins than he was supposed to. Generally, the odds from Anomaly’s 24-hour case opening stream aren’t too far off from the official ones released by Valve. All in all, the test of verifying CS: GO’s case opening odds can be deemed a success.
However, even though Anomaly was considered “lucky,” it is still bizarre to learn that he only unboxed 12 knives out of 4,000 cases, which cost him around $10,300.
The most expensive knife he unboxed was a Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Ruby), which at the time was around $900. In total, Anomaly got $3,500 back from all the knives he unboxed. After the live stream, the YouTuber ran some numbers and revealed he ended up losing $6,100.
Are CS:GO Knife Odds Fair?
We can use Anomaly’s experiment as an answer to this question. If the numbers weren’t enough to convince you, Anomaly said that opening cases is not worth it, and you will end up at a loss in the long term. For the amount of money Anomaly lost from 4,000 cases, you could have already bought one of the most expensive knives in the game or a decent second-hand car in Europe.
Requiring 385 cases to unbox a singular knife already raises red flags. The amount of money needed for the CS:GO case keys alone is close to $1,000. Additionally, there’s a chance you unbox one of the lower-tier knives, which could be worth only $100 to $200. Even if the objective of unboxing a knife is completed, there’s still a very good chance you will lose.
On the other side of the argument, you could unbox a precious knife instead. Though that point is valid, remember that Anomaly opened a Stiletto Knife | Doppler Ruby, and still ended up losing 60% of his investment.
Still, almost a million cases are being opened every day. Though the odds speak for themselves, people remain addicted to opening CS:GO cases. This hobby is not recommended if you are not financially stable.
Frequently Asked Questions
How Many Cases Are Opened Every Day?
According to statistics, more than 700,000 CS:GO cases are opened daily. This figure would net Valve over $1,750,000 daily from CS:GO case keys alone.
How To Get A Rare Knife In CS:GO?
There are two ways to get a rare knife in CS:GO. The first is to unbox it from a CS:GO weapon case. The other is to purchase it from another player.
What Are The Odds Of Pulling A Knife In CS:GO?
Valve has released the official odds of unboxing a knife in CS:GO. Players have a 0.26% chance to pull a knife from a weapon case.
How Many Cases Do You Have To Open To Get A Knife?
Statistically, a player needs to open 385 cases to unbox a knife. However, some players had to open thousands to unbox their first knife, while others did it in their first twenty.
Is Valve’s CS:GO Knife Chance Accurate?
Judging from Anomaly’s 4,000-case experiment, yes, Valve’s official odds are relatively accurate. Anomaly unboxed one knife every 338 cases when it should have been around 385.
Is It Worth It To Open Cases?
No. Opening cases is not a recommended way for players to make a profit. Anomaly is considered to be lucky to unbox 12 knives, yet he ended up losing $6,100 from his $10,300 investment.