Are you wondering if the rumors that say Valve has already determined what skins CS:GO cases will drop are true? This guide will answer the question whether are CS:GO cases predetermined or not, to help you see if it’s a good idea to invest your money into case opening for winning exclusive skins.
We will bring you all the facts about this topic, so you can make the best decision. Let’s start by defining what “predetermined” is and what it implies within the context of CS:GO case opening.
Understanding the Meaning of “Predetermined”
According to the Cambridge Dictionary, to predetermine means “to decide or arrange something at an earlier time”. Therefore, stating CS:GO cases are predetermined implies saying Valve has already set the skins each case will drop. Considering over 1.8 billion cases have been opened until date, it means they have done it for every single one.
This is what people wonder when they ask if CS2 cases are predetermined, believing Valve has already decided beforehand what skins they will get, and this would honestly be unfair and even considered a scam.
And since cases are worth real money, just like the keys you need to open them, this would have gigantic financial implications, and players would even be able to sue Valve.
Fortunately, this is not the case because CS:GO cases are not predetermined, and we will explain how it works in the next section, so you can see why the skins that each case will drop are 100% random, and thus Valve is operating in a fair and legal way.
Are CS:GO Cases Actually Random?
Yes, CS:GO cases are 100% random because there’s a random number generator that determines what skin will drop from the container. Therefore, the entire process is fair and aleatory, and thus CS:GO cases aren’t predetermined in any way.
It’s completely normal to have doubts about whether CS:GO cases are predetermined or not, because this matter has even intrigued the government, such as the Chinese government, which issued specific regulations to address this matter in 2017 to force Valve to disclose the odds of case opening.
Valve, to continue operating in China, complied with the new regulations, and disclosed the odds of CS:GO case opening, proving to the world that cases are not predetermined because they use a 100% random system to determine what skin a container will drop.
Based on this information, and the fact that the Chinese government likely conducted its own investigation to verify these statements by Valve, we can confirm case opening is a 100% random process, and thus their drops aren’t predetermined.
Nonetheless, there’s more to see, because even though they aren’t predetermined, the odds might not be in your favor if you’re looking to drop a rare skin such as a knife. We will bring you all details about it below.
Understanding the Odds of Opening CS:GO Cases
Following the regulations introduced by the Chinese government in 2017, the real odds of CS:GO case opening were disclosed, allowing all of us to see what were the chances of dropping skins based on their rarity level.
If you are wondering what the odds are, here you have them properly listed:
- Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92%
- Mythical / Restricted (Purple): 15.98%
- Legendary / Classified (Pink): 3.20%
- Ancient / Covert (Red): 0.64%
- Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold): 0.26%
Now, this doesn’t mean that 79.92% of CS:GO cases are predetermined to drop skins rated Rare/Mil-Spec, it just means there’s such a possibility of getting a skin with that rarity level, because every drop is determined by a 100% random number generator.
To put this into perspective, let’s see how many cases it will take you to open in order to a skin of each rarity level:
- Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue): 1 in 1.25
- Mythical / Restricted (Purple): 1 in 6
- Legendary / Classified (Pink): 1 in 31
- Ancient / Covert (Red): 1 in 156
- Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold): 1 in 391
Based on this, it’s easy to see that the majority of cases will drop a skin rated Rare (Blue), based on the official odds disclosed by Valve. Although it looks like they’re predetermined to drop skins with that rarity level in particular, it’s not the case thanks to the random number generator they use.
Therefore, now you know how many opens it will take you (in theory) to drop a rare skin such as a knife, gloves or AK47.
We can even expand it further here. Because if it’s expected you will get a Covert-rated skin after 156 opens, but it’s not set in stone, hence it’s not predetermined. You can get it after only 15 opens, or you might get it after 500 opens. It’s not 100% guaranteed, because it’s not predetermined, but rather it’s decided by a random number generator.
Diving Deeper into the Odds of CS:GO Cases
By getting to know the real odds of CS:GO cases, now you know they are not predetermined, but there’s still more to see, because there are more factors that come into play such as the finish quality, wear quality and type of weapon/item.
When dropping a new skin, the random number generator will also take care of assigning an aleatory float value to the skin, to determine its wear quality. Based on the available data, we have found out these are the odds:
- Factory New (0.00-0.07): 3%
- Minimal Wear (0.07-0.15): 24%
- Field-Tested (0.15-0.38): 33%
- Well-Worn (0.38-0.45): 24%
- Battle-Scarred (0.45-1.00): 16%
Along with the float value, other aspects will be determined randomly as we have already mentioned, such as the finish, pattern and weapon. Let’s talk about them below, so you can see all that’s involved when opening a CS:GO case.
There are different types of finishes as well, and this value will also be determined randomly. For example, when opening a specific case, you might only stand a chance of 1 in 13 to get a skin with a Case Hardened finish. Therefore, they are not predetermined in any way.
Just like this, each CS:GO case will contain different weapons and items such as knives, gloves, AK47s, AWPs, guns, M4A1-S, SG 553, just to name a few, and it’s impossible to predict which one the case will drop. It’s all a matter of luck, and hence it’s a random and fair process, and therefore, it’s key to administer the risk properly.
The skin the CS:GO case drops will also have a random pattern (seed) value ranging from 0 to 999, because the 1,000 is only possible via tradeup. Therefore, if you want to obtain a skin with a specific pattern that’s part of premium categories such as Blue Gem, Fire & Ice or Fade, you stand just a 0.10% chance.
As you can see, there are far more factors involved than just the rarity level of the skin, and it’s key to know about them, so you can look at CS:GO case opening objectively.
Conclusion
Therefore, after evaluating all the evidence available, we can conclude that CS:GO cases ARE NOT predetermined, hence you can buy and open them with confidence, because there’s a 100% random and fair process running behind the curtains which will determine the skin that your selected case will drop.
However, it’s our duty to let you know that CS:GO case opening can be risky, and the only factor that will determine what skin you will get is luck, as it’s pretty similar to playing online slots or other types of high-risk gambling games.
We invite you to compare the odds of getting a skin you want this way versus buying it directly, to help you make the best decision.