What Are The Real Odds Of Getting A Rare Item In CS2?

If you’re curious about the real CSGO case opening odds, and hence what are your chances of getting a rare skin drop, this guide is for you. Because we’re going to unveil all the data and stats without filters, because you deserve to know the truth.

Especially if you’re planning to invest money into opening CS2 cases because you want to test your luck and see if you can drop an exotic skin such as a Karambit Marble Fade or a blue gem or Crimson Web knife. We are going to disclose the true colors of case opening right here.

The CSGO Case Opening Odds and Chances in a Nutshell

Let’s go straight into the available data, here you have an in-depth look into the real case opening odds in the game:


  • Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92%
  • Mythical / Restricted (Purple): 15.98%
  • Legendary / Classified (Pink): 3.20%
  • Ancient / Covert (Red): 0.64%
  • Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold): 0.26%


Just based on this information, you can already see what are your chances of getting a rate item in CS:GO… only 0.26%. It means that for every 391 cases you open, you will stand a chance of getting one Rare Drop. 

About the CSGO Opening Percentages for Float Value

Nonetheless, these numbers don’t say anything about the float value of the Rare Drop you might get after 391 opens, and this is going to make it much harder to get a valuable rare skin.

For example, you might end up getting a pair of Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade with the precious pattern #113… but it might be Battle Scarred, and it will suddenly go from $3,000-$3,500 to being worth just $150 to $200. Big difference. This is why the float value matters a lot, and here you have the odds of the different wear qualities:


  • Factory New (0.00-0.07): 3%
  • Minimal Wear (0.07-0.15): 24%
  • Field-Tested (0.15-0.38): 33%
  • Well-Worn (0.38-0.45): 24%
  • Battle-Scarred (0.45-1.00): 16%


As you can see, your chances of getting a highly valuable Factory New Rare Drop have now become even slimmer, placing them at way below 0.26%.


Now that you are aware of how the CSGO case opening percentages work, you can see why it’s considered highly risky… especially if you choose cases with a poor ROI. The next section will explain this in more detail.

About the Price and CSGO Case Opening Odds

Just considering that your chances of getting a rare item in CS:GO are 1 in 391, we will look at some of the most popular CS:GO cases and how much you’d need to get a Rare Drop:


Case Price (Case + Key) Cost of 391 Opens Best Rare Drop
Gamma Case $5.41 $2,115.31 Karambit | Gamma Doppler
Operation Broken Fang Case $7.94 $3,104.54 Sport Gloves | Slingshot
Clutch Case $299 $1,169.09 Sport Gloves | Vice
Operation Hydra Case $27.36 $10,697.76 Sport Gloves | Pandora’s Box
Huntsman Weapon Case $12.81 $5,008.71 Huntsman Knife | Fade
Winter Offensive Weapon Case $8.14 $3,182.74 Karambit | Fade


As you can see, in the majority of cases you will need deep pockets if you want to stand a chance at getting a Rare Drop. It’s key to have this clear before venturing yourself into opening cases, because it’s a long way until you get a rare item.

It’s also important to mention that there are no guarantees you will get a Rare Drop after 391 opens. You might never get it, even after 3,910 opens. We must be honest here, and let you know all about case opening before you dive into it.

On the other hand, you might get lucky and receive a Rare Drop after just 10 openings… which would bring you a massive profit and leave you pretty happy… but this is not likely to happen.

It’s also important to add that some cases, such as the Operation cases like the Hydra and Broken Fang have a limited supply, because once an Operation Pass is over, it won’t no longer be possible to get cases to the Operation. Therefore, you might not even have enough cases available on the market to buy and open to land a Rare Drop…

Just take all of this information into account before you mindlessly spend your money on opening CS:GO cases, because now that you know what the real odds are, you can play it smart to increase your chances of getting a rare skin.

This is also a good opportunity to get into the basics of bankroll management, because this is similar to playing online slots. The ones who last long enough will have higher chances of winning big, so if you want to hit that jackpot, A.K.A a beautiful and pretty expensive skin, you need to learn how to administer that bankroll.

If you’d like to learn even more about this topic, the following section will go into the real odds of getting a rare knife drop, so you can explore what are your chances of getting such an elusive item.

What is the CS GO Case Opening Probability of Getting a Rare Knife?

You can already guess what your chances are, pretty pretty small. However, if you’re particularly interested in getting a rare and exotic knife by opening CS2 cases, let’s dive deeper into the probabilities and chances.

The Equation for CS:GO Rare Knife Drop Chances

Let’s say you want to get a specific knife with a rare pattern, and for this example we are going to talk about the Karambit Blue Gem with pattern #387. Here you have the full list of odds for each element we will use into this equation:


  • Rare Drop (Knife): 1 in 391
  • Case Hardened Finish: 1 in 13
  • Karambit Drop Chances: 1 in 5
  • Pattern #387: 1 in 999


Now if we put it all together, we’d need to use the following equation to calculate the chances of getting a knife drop:


Rare Knife Drop Chances = (1/391)*(1/13)*(1/5)*(1/999)*(9/10)


Then just do the calculations and we get the following number:


Rare Knife Drop Chances = 0.0000000393862286


Putting it into percentages, we get the following odds = 0.00000393862286% or roughly 0.000004%. This abysmal percentage is your chance of getting a rare knife.

And if we were to add more elements such as wear quality, it’d go way below 0.0.00004% if you’re looking to get a Factory New knife… and even lower if you were aiming for a StatTrak skin.

Therefore, be it you’re looking for a Karambit Blue Gem, Karambit Fade or another rare knife such as a Crimson Web, now you know your chances of getting it are as small as 1 in 25,392,870 chances.

It means that you will have to open over 25M cases to get a rare drop knife, and this is not doable for the vast majority of players in their own mind… nor do they have the necessary funds for such a gigantic operation.

In conclusion, as you can see, it’s all a matter of luck. The chances are pretty slim, but who knows, it might be your lucky day and you’ll get a rare, exotic and pretty expensive knife right off the bat.

Are the CSGO Case Opening Odds the Same as the CS2 Case Opening Chances?

Yes, the case opening odds in CSGO are the same as in CS2. Even though there have been some rumors that they might be different, it’s completely false.You can go ahead and open CS:GO cases, and you will get the same odds as we have previously explained.

For example, getting a rare knife such as a Karambit Blue Gem with a Tier 1 pattern will still only happen 1 in over 25M opens, regardless if you’re still playing CS.GO or you’ve already switched to CS2.

Without getting too technical, it will still take you approximately 391 opens to get a Rare Drop, even if you’re playing CS2. The odds remain the same and they will always be, unless Valve decides to change it, and in case they do it, you can expect to receive news about it.

For now you can rely on our guide here to see how many opens it will take you to land a rare drop, be it a knife, rifle, gun or gloves.

About the CSGO Case Opening Rates

At the time of writing this article, over 1.8 billion cases have been opened in CS:GO (CS2). Putting it into perspective, we can deduct the following:


  • Nearly 1.2M cases are opened every single day
  • Nearly 7.8M cases are opened every week
  • Nearly 30.6M cases are opened every month


As you can see, CS:GO case opening is one of the most popular features of the game, and it’s not surprising to discover it has generated Valve approximately $1B in sales. 

The CS:GO case opening rates clearly prove it, and it’s clear that this activity will remain as a core function in the game, because everyone loves it and it’s generating massive revenue waves for the company.

Nonetheless, now that you know what the real odds are, you can stay one step ahead and play it smart, increasing your chances of getting a rare drop.


You’re smart enough to see that the real game of CS:GO case opening is called LUCK. The odds are not in your favor, but if you’re bold and lucky enough, you might end up getting a superb rare drop right after a few opens. 

If you’ve decided to embark yourself on this adrenaline-fueled journey, we wish you luck, and if you get a rare item, leave a comment here and let us know what you got!


Rate this article

0 / 5. 0

Popular article