If you have been playing CS2 for a while, you must have noticed that knife skins can be particularly expensive… especially considering the most expensive CS:GO skin is the Karambit Blue Gem #387 (Factory New), which is worth an astonishing $1,500,000 USD.
And you’re here because you’re wondering the exact reasons why CS:GO knives can be so expensive, and in this article, you’ll find all the answers you’re looking for.
Why Are CSGO Knives So Expensive? – About the Odds and Rarity
To understand why CS2 knife skins are so expensive, it’s important to talk about the odds and rarity of weapon skins in CS:GO.
If you want to get a CS:GO knife from opening CS2 cases, you’ll find that your chances of pulling this stunt are barely 0.26%… which is roughly 1 per every 391 cases you offer. And the worst part is that this isn’t guaranteed.
Based on this, it’s easy to see why knife skins are rated as extremely rare items, because they’re very hard to get from opening CS:GO cases, and this is a factor that contributes towards their high price tag.
And if we’re talking about dropping a knife with a specific finish and pattern, the odds go way lower. According to the latest calculations, the chances of dropping a rare and expensive CS knife such as a Blue Gem Skeleton Knife or Butterfly Knife Gamma Doppler Emerald, are below 0.0010%. Especially if you want a skin with a low float value, being Factory New or Minimal Wear.
The odds make it hard to obtain knives in CS:GO, and such difficulty makes them scarce items, and since there’s a lot of demand for them, the prices climb up accordingly. Simple.
Many collectors and traders prefer to buy knives directly because the odds of unboxing one from buying and opening CS:GO cases are too low, and hence the process is too expensive and risky. Therefore, a direct purchase is a better option.
The Importance of Finishes and Patterns
The most expensive Karambit is worth $1,500,000 USD because it has the extremely rare #387 pattern, making it the ultimate Blue Gem, thanks to the Case Hardened finish. This shows how certain patterns and finish qualities can significantly increase a knife’s value in CS:GO, while others might sell closer to the standard market value for similar skins.
Based on our research, the most valuable finish for knives is Case Hardened, and the most valuable patterns are the Tier 1 Blue Gem seed patterns. Because the most expensive CS2 knives ever sold have this finish and a tier-1 blue gem pattern.
For example, a Talon Knife | Case Hardened with the pattern #923 was sold for over $200,000 in 2023, making it one of the most valuable CS:GO knives ever sold. And like this, we can find other examples, such as the Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened #403 sold for $100,000, thanks to zipeL, a popular collector of blue gem skins.
Based on recorded sales and current valuations, other expensive finishes and patterns (or phases) include the following:
- Gamma Doppler – Emerald Phase
- Doppler – Emerald Phase
- Doppler – Sapphire Phase
- Doppler – Ruby Phase
- Crimson Web (With a high number of webs on the playside)
- Marble Fade
- Fade (With an outstanding percentage of purple)
- Lore
- Slaughter
If you’d like to learn more about these finishes, patterns and finishes for CS:GO knives, you can explore our site and you’ll find plenty of guides dedicated to them.
The Role of Float Value and StatTrak
You can have two CS:GO knives with the same finish and pattern, but the one with the lower float value will sell for more money, especially if it is StatTrak rated.
For example, a Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Emerald) rated as Factory New, hence with a low float value, will sell for $17,000+, whereas the same skin, but rated as Minimal Wear, will sell for $12,000 to $13,000. And if we talk about skins with a higher float value, the price will decrease significantly.
The less wear and tear a skin has, the more valuable it will be. A universal truth for all the CS:GO skins, not only knives.
When it comes to the StatTrak rating, it can really drive up the price of a CS:GO knife. For example, a Paracord Knife | Case Hardened #403 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak can sell for over $21,000 USD, whereas the same skin but without the StatTrak rating will sell for considerably less money.
In conclusion, CS:GO knives are already rare and expensive, but the examples that are rated as StatTrak and have a low float value – Factory New or Minimal Wear – will be considerably more valuable.
Are All CS:GO Knives Expensive?
No, absolutely not. Some can be pretty affordable, especially if they have a high float value, a suboptimal pattern (for example, a tier-4 blue gem pattern) or if we’re talking about an unpopular knife such as the Shadow Daggers, Huntsman Knife or Bowie Knife.
If we strictly check ONLY the most expensive CS:GO knives ever sold, we’ll get the following:
- Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) #853: $233,000 USD
- Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) #923: $224,000 USD
- Karambit | Case Hardened (Field Tested) #387: $169,000 USD
- Karambit | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) #387: $100,000 USD
- Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) #403: $100,000 USD
As you can see, the most expensive knives are the Karambit, Talon Knife, Skeleton Knife, and they all have the Case Hardened finish and a tier-1 blue gem pattern – a combination guaranteed to massively increase the price of a knife skin in CS:GO, because collectors are ready to pay big sums for them.
While other knives can be expensive, such an M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened #601 Blue Gem valued at $60,000+, a Paracord Knife | Case Hardened #403 priced at $20,000+ or a Ursus Knife | Case Hardened #494 valued at $12,000+, they do not come close to the elite of knives, composed of the Blue Gem Karambit, Talon Knife and Skeleton Knife.
It’s important to consider this because, if you just want to have a CS:GO knife for the sake of adding one to your inventory, you can get one at an affordable price if it’s not a massively popular one with a pricey pattern, low float value or StatTrak rating.
For example, you can add an Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened with a tier-4 blue gem pattern to your inventory for less than $1,000 USD. And the same applies to the majority of Case Hardened knives, especially the less popular options such as Shadow Daggers, Huntsman Knife or Bowie Knife.
However, if you really want a CS:GO knife with a rare finish and pattern, along with minimal wear and tear, now you know it’s going to cost you a lot of money.
Final Words
Now you can see why some CS:GO knives are very expensive, while others are more affordable. If you have more questions about this, feel free to leave them in the comments, and we’ll get back to you as soon as possible!